"Killed by Asteroid" or "Killed in an Airplane Crash"

I would like to thank those (all 7 of you) who voted on my poll question. The question was, "Which do you think is more likely to be engraved on your tombstone?" "Killed by Asteroid" or "Killed in an Airplane Crash." After the voting was complete 14.28571% (to be exact!) of you voted, "Killed by Asteroid." The other 85.71428% voted "Killed in an Airplane Crash."

I know the suspense is "killing" you so I will get to the answer to the question, but before I do, there actually is statistical evidence to back up the answer to the question. So if you happen to have voted for the correct answer, well, congratulations! You were correct!

The chances that your tombstone will have engraved upon it, "Killed by Asteroid" or "Killed in an Airplane Crash" are about the same. Congratulations to all seven of you, you were correct! There have been about 2 dozen people killed by asteroids falling from the sky in the past 400 years, but there have been thousands of people killed in airplane crashes during the relatively brief history of passenger air travel. So how can this comparative statistic be correct and true? No problem! The asteroid impact records show that after the end of 10 million years, when the total of all airplane crashes has killed roughly 1 billion people (assuming a death-by-airplane rate of 100 per year), an asteroid is most likely to have hit the Earth with enough energy to kill 1 billion people. What is interesting about this comparison is that while airplane crashes kill people a few at a time, an asteroid might not kill anyone for millions of years. But, when an asteroid does hit, it will take out hundreds of millions of people instantly and many more hundreds of millions in the wake of global climactic upheaval.

I hope that I have not raised too many fears of an asteroid impact or air travel! The asteroid and comet impact rate has declined dramatically since the early life of our solar system. Whew! Look to the moon and you will see numerous impact craters, look at Earth, not so many visible. But this does indicate that Earth has not been hit in the past. We have been hit many, many times with grave consequences, just ask Tyrannosaurus rex, ooops! He is no longer around. Wonder why? The moon has no atmosphere, plate tectonics, wind, water, or any of these great features that Earth does. This allows the craters on the moon to remain undisturbed. Well, maybe Neil Armstrong stirred up some dust, but hey! Earth, however, has all of these factors that erode the impact sites and craters. Lucky Us! Really! Some of these craters have been recycled within the Earth due to the plate tectonic activity of subduction. You know, "SUBDUCTION LEADS TO OROGENY!" Sorry, but this is a great joke, research it and think about it. After all, there is no preserved oceanic crust older than about 180 million years old. (I know, that was just what you were thinking!)

There are many impact sites that are still visible. There is one in the state of Arizona that I have been to see. It is quite the site to view. (And this is a relatively small impact crater in comparison to the Chicxulub Crater in the Yucat'an Peninsula, that I have not seen!) While viewing the crater left in the ground you can imagine the force of the impact. (Actually, not too big, only about 2.5 megatons of TNT, Chicxulub was about 100 teratons of TNT, yes teratons, just a little bit more!)

Even though there have not been any major impacts to Earth in recent history we need to look to the skies and watch. Well not everyone! There is an asteroid that is coming! Apophis! This will make two very close passes by Earth. Possibly, on the second pass around, make contact with EARTH!

First Pass, April 13, 2029! Friday the 13th!

Second Pass, 2036, IMPACT?????

THINK ABOUT IT!